The New Zealand experience of recent weeks would suggest that the ultimate effect of the earthquake on the JPY will be negative. There may be some short term inflows but once they are taken care of, the JPY should weaken.
The great unknown in the whole USD/JPY equation is the positioning of options books. The moves below 81.50 and 81.00 earlier today were caused by very large stop-loss orders from options players. The orders below 80.00 are supposed to be ‘huge’ and with volatility currently at elevated levels, we could see these stops threatened before the JPY-weakening begins. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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