Thursday, February 10, 2011

wheat price forecast 2011

wheat price forecast 2011 ; Wheat futures fell the most in six weeks on speculation that snow in the U.S. Great Plains will improve soil moisture and provide protective cover over crops before temperatures drop.

Areas of northwest Kansas may receive up to 6 inches (15 centimeters) of snow by tomorrow, while southwest to north- central Nebraska may get up to 8 inches, according to National Weather Service forecasts. Much of the area has had less than half of the normal amount of precipitation in the past 60 days. Temperatures may drop to minus 10 Fahrenheit (minus 23 Celsius), according to World Weather Inc.

Wheat Update: Upside Risks To 2011 Price Forecast
Core View: We note upside risks to our forecast for an average price of USc575/bushel in 2011 and USc600/bushel in 2012. A more bullish outlook for the wider grain complex means that wheat prices could overshoot our expectations. In particular, a significant deterioration in prospects for global corn production has bolstered our bullish view and this could underpin wheat prices through substitution effects. However, barring the development of additional wheat-specific supply issues, our current expectation is for largely sideways trade within the USc640-760/bushel range over the coming months.

This is because despite the decimation of Russia's 2010/11 crop, which led to a short-term scramble for supply, we expect the global market to remain adequately supplied over the medium term. Indeed, bumper harvests in 2007/08 and 2008/09 resulted in the build up of significant stocks. Therefore, although we expect consumption to outstrip production by 6mn tonnes in 2010/11, ample inventories should buffer the market from any significant tightness. We forecast the global stock-to-use ratio will decline to 30.0% in 2010/11, down from an eight-year high of 31.2% in 2009/10, but significantly above the ten-year average of 27.0%.

U.S. to forecast tighter corn, wheat supplies in 2011
Grain prices have surged since last year to near record highs of 2008 as drought and floods cut into the world's crops while feed, food and fuel demand races ahead, stoking prices and sparking unrest in some Arab countries and elsewhere.
Read More...

Australia targets record wheat crop for 2011-12
Australian wheat farmers may enjoy a record crop in 2011-12, but face problems storing it given the huge grain stocks set to be carried over from this season's harvest, Rabobank has said. Read More...

Japan Buys Least Wheat in Two Weeks After Price Rally
Japan bought 164,574 metric tons of milling wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender today, the smallest volume in two weeks, after futures in Chicago advanced to the highest levels since 2008. Read More...

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