Asia
U.S. agricultural exports to Asia in 2011 are forecast up 17 percent from the August forecast to $54.8 billion. China is expected to be the largest importer in the region and second largest U.S. market overall at $17.5 billion, which is just $500 million less than forecast exports to Canada (the top market). Oilseeds are again expected to dominate the U.S. export product mix and account for more than half of all exports to China. Cotton demand is also expected to be strong on a reduced domestic crop, though higher unit values for both cotton and soybeans should account for most of the increase in export value.
Japan has been one of the slowest growing major U.S. markets over the past 10 years but the outlook is bright in 2011 with exports forecast up 13 percent. Grains and feeds make up nearly half of total exports and with unit values for both commodities up significantly, the overall forecast is raised $1.5 billion. A recovery in consumer spending and higher unit values for soybeans and pork should also support export value. Exports to South Korea soared last year, increasing 30 percent over 2009, and the trend is expected to continue in 2011 with exports forecast up 20 percent. Grains and meat account for the majority of exports, and both demand and unit values for these products should be healthy.
Southeast Asia has been one of the fastest growing markets over the past 10 years and is forecast to reach a record $9.1 billion in 2011. With rapid growth in middle income consumers, meat demand has taken off and resulted in increasing imports of soybeans, soybean meal, feed grains, and distillers dried grains. With strong economic growth expected in 2011, U.S. exports of these products are expected to grow. Higher unit values than last year for these products, along with cotton, should also support an increase in U.S. export value. Much of the growth will be focused in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. Wheat shipments are also expected to rise to the Philippines, which is the second largest market in Asia.
Western Hemisphere
Though China remains the fastest growing major market, Canada is expected to continue as the top market with exports forecast at a record $18 billion. High unit values for grains, oilseeds, livestock, and meat support the forecast. Furthermore, a recovering economy is expected to support purchases of horticultural products, which account for more than 40 percent of U.S. exports to Canada. Despite this record forecast, exports to China are expected to grow by more than Canada in 2011 and narrow the gap between the top two U.S. markets. Exports to Mexico are forecast at a record $16 billion on strong grain, pork, and oilseed demand and unit values. Increased wheat exports should be a key driver behind exports due to reduced competition from Canada.
Europe, Africa, and the Middle East
Exports to Turkey increased 45 percent from 2009 to 2010 and are again expected to be strong in 2011, with a nearly 30 percent jump. Cotton accounts for nearly half of all exports to Turkey, and record high U.S. unit values and early-season sales indicate that shipments to Turkey this year could reach a record. Strong demand and values for oilseeds also support the record forecast of $2.7 billion. As is the case with Turkey, exports to other Middle Eastern countries should be supported by high oilseed and cotton unit values along with reduced grain export competition from Russia and the Ukraine.
Reduced exportable grain supplies in Russia and Ukraine are expected to support U.S. wheat and corn sales to North Africa, with especially strong sales to Egypt. Though less impacted by the shortage in Black Sea grain supplies, exports to Sub Saharan Africa are up based, in part, on high U.S. wheat unit values. Nigeria accounted for 40 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to the region last year and is expected to continue as the top market in 2011.
Import Products
Stronger than expected import demand in the last half of fiscal 2010 pushed total U.S. agricultural imports to $79 billion, a 7.6-percent bounce from 2009. Import gains from April to September 2010 averaged 17 percent per quarter. Driven in part by this momentum, the forecast for 2011 is moved up to $85.5 billion, an 8.2- percent increase. Consumer spending for food and beverages has climbed by 0.7 percent on average in the past six quarters. Disposable personal income during this period is up by an average 0.5 percent per quarter. At the same time, quarterly growth in world food prices has averaged 1.5 percent since the second quarter of 2009. This indicates that U.S. agricultural import value is being boosted by higher food commodity prices.
The major food commodity prices that are inflating the U.S. import bill include coffee beans, cocoa beans, coconut oil, palm oil, rubber, and sugar. In fiscal 2010, 1.5 percent of the 7.6-percent U.S. import growth was accounted for by import volume (metric tons), which leaves about 6 percent attributable to higher prices. The 8.2-percent projected import growth in 2011 reflects about 2 percent gain in volumes and 6 percent rise in unit values. To date, world food prices are up 8 percent in the past year and a half, while beverage prices are up 24 percent, including coffee, cocoa, tea, wine, and beer prices. These recent price effects are expected to be reflected in the value of U.S. food and beverage imports starting in the fourth quarter of 2010 and into 2011.
Of the additional $7 billion in agricultural imports expected in 2011, about $2 billion is projected from sugar and tropical products, $3 billion from horticultural products, $700 million from livestock and dairy products, and $500 million from grain products. These projections are based on U.S. gross domestic product growth of at least 2.5 percent in 2011, down slightly from 2.7 percent in 2010. U.S. consumer spending gained strength starting last summer, even as disposable personal income growth remains weak. Consumer prices for food were up only about 1 percent since last year, a welcome scenario for consumption demand.
For horticultural crops, fresh fruits and vegetables are expected to combine for $13.3 billion worth of imports in 2011, up from $12 billion in 2010. This $1.3- billion worth of additional imported produce comprises 44 percent of the expected $3 billion projected gain in total horticultural imports for 2011. About 20 percent of U.S. horticultural imports are processed fruits and vegetables, including juices but excluding wine. Combining fresh and processed produce with nuts, these imports comprise more than a quarter of the total value of U.S. agricultural imports. In fact, all fruit and vegetable imports, worth an estimated $22.1 billion in 2011, are nearly $2 billion more than all imports of sugar and tropical products, and $10.3 billion more than livestock and dairy imports.
Coffee bean prices from Brazil this summer exceeded the previous high price of $1.42 per pound (in early 2008). This pattern closely resembles cocoa bean prices until the latter leveled off this summer. Another major commodity whose prices have dramatically jumped starting in late 2009 is sugar. This is largely due to reduced world production (mainly Brazil and Asia) and higher global sugar consumption. The biggest importers of sugar are the European Union, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States. In fiscal 2010, U.S. import unit values for sugar jumped 23 percent. Rubber import unit values went up even higher—by 26 percent as U.S. automobile production staged a significant rebound. Import unit values for cocoa, coffee, and tea were up from 11 to 19 percent in 2010, contributing to the $3-billion addition to U.S. imports of sugar and tropical products in 2010.
The more than $200-million anticipated rise in U.S. beef imports in 2011 over 2010 is in part due to tight supplies of domestic processing beef. Cattle imports for 2011 are forecast at 2.1 million head, 2 percent lower than in 2010 due to decreased cattle inventories in Canada and Mexico. Overall, livestock and meat imports are projected to increase by $550 million in 2011.
While still lower than in 2008, imported coconut oil values (from the Philippines) in 2010 are significantly higher than in 2009 and climbing. Palm oil and palm kernel oil prices are also on an upward path, although not as steeply as coconut oil’s. These price-led import gains for tropical oils are mirrored partly in processed grain prices, which contribute to the $700-million projected import bill for grain and feed products in 2011. If Malaysian rubber prices remain around $1.60 per pound and consumer spending for cars continues its recent pace, the U.S. rubber import bill is expected to rise by $600 million in 2011.
Regional Imports
U.S. imports of farm products are forecast to increase by 8 percent in 2011. Mexico, Canada, and the European Union are the leading contenders to supply most of that import growth. In terms of import volume (metric tons), the largest U.S. suppliers in 2010 were Canada, Mexico, Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Malaysia. By region, Southeast Asian countries export more than twice as much in volume of farm products to the U.S. as the European Union. The EU, however, trails only Canada in terms of value of agricultural exports to the United States. After Mexico, South America is ahead of Southeast Asia in export value to the United States. These top 5 regions supply more than three-quarters of imported U.S. farm products.
The top four exporters of fresh vegetables to the United States are Mexico, Canada, Peru, and China. These countries make up 93 percent of the total imported supply. By itself, Mexico supplies more than two-thirds of imported fresh vegetables. More than a third of U.S. fresh vegetable imports are tomatoes, and 83 percent are shipped north from Mexico. Although the share of imported fresh vegetables is only 18 percent of domestic consumption, 44 percent of tomatoes consumed are imported. The next largest fresh vegetable imports are sweet and chili peppers, two-thirds of which are supplied by Mexico. The third largest vegetable imports are frozen potatoes, largely for French fries, from Canada. About 22 percent of French fries consumed in the United States are imported.Read More To view data charts, go to ... For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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