Thursday, February 24, 2011

Outlook soybean futures ends down on selling pressure

Outlook soybean futures ends down on selling pressure : Extended short covering led the soybean futures to witness a positive trend in early trade on Tuesday. Firm trend in overseas market both ECBOT and BMD gave support for the Indian market. However, in later part of the day, prices retraced from morning gains and traded on a negative note following emergence of selling pressure.

Poor meal demand from local traders and exporters had a bearish impact on the spot and futures market.

Market participants were cautious on trade ahead of General Budget. Spot markets witnessed poor off-take especially from crushers because of sluggish meal export demand and on decline in crush margin.

International markets also turned negative in later part of the day based on weak fundamental factors, thus, putting pressure on Indian market.

Outlook

The soybean futures are projected to extend its bearish trend on continued selling pressure. Slugging buying interest in the spot market from traders and crushers due to absence of fresh meal export enquiries is likely to have a bearish impact on the market.

Most of the South East Asian countries are shifting their demand from India to Latin America following commencement of harvesting in that nation.

Though arrivals are limited across major spot markets, demand is not picking up due to poor meal export demand and on declining crush margin. Market participants are likely to be cautious ahead of General Budget wherein Finance Minister is likely to announce some measures to control higher food inflation.

Identification of harmful pest in the soy meal cargo sent to Vietnam is likely to damper the demand for soy meal. In the parliament, the finance minister said food inflation is the major concern for the government and it will try to take necessary steps to control.

There has been market talks that centre may slash import duty on refined edible oils. Indian market is likely to move in line with weak international market. CBOT soybean futures plunged to hit intraday lower limit of 70 cents on strong selling.

Ongoing political unrest in Middle East countries is creating panic in the global market as it might lead to global economic uncertainty.

This may lead to lowering demand for commodities. Furthermore, improvement in Latin American production prospect is also putting pressure on the market. Brazil lowered its meal price to $376 a ton from $397 a ton while Indian price is at $400-405 a ton
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