Saturday, February 26, 2011

Global cotton prices forecast 2011

Global cotton prices forecast 2011 : March cotton prices retreated from their recent an all-time high of $2.1102 a pound, the highest price since cotton began recorded-trading 140 years ago. Bearish factors include (1) long liquidation prompted by the Middle East unrest, and (2) the prediction from researcher Cotlook Ltd., that world cotton output in the year starting Aug 1 will rise to a record 27.65 MMT, up +13% y/y.

Bullish factors include (1) reduced cotton production in Australia, the world's fourth-largest exporter, after the worst floods in 50 years decimated its cotton crop, (2) USDA's Feb 9 cut in its global cotton production estimate for this year to 115.25 mln bales along with the cut in its global carry-over estimate to a 15-year low of 42.81 mln bales, and (3) insatiable Chinese demand after China cotton imports for all of 2010 surged +86% y/y to 2.84 MMT.

Weekly US cotton exports (week ended Feb 10) were 393.9 thousand running bales; cumulative 2010/11 (Aug-July) exports up +49% y/y. Fundamental Outlook- Bull market correction -Cotton prices fell back from recent record highs. Strong demand and limited supplies still support prices, along with the USDA's cut in its global carry-over estimate to 42.81 mln bales, a 15-year low. The world stocks/use ratio is forecast at less than 37% this year, the lowest since 1993-1994.

U.S. Corn, Wheat, Cotton, Soybean Acres to Rise, USDA Says

Corn will be planted on 92 million acres, up from 88.2 million last year, Joe Glauber, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s chief economist, said today at a USDA forum near Washington. A record 78 million acres will be sown with soybeans, up from 77.45 million in 2010, he said. Upland cotton acres were projected at 12.75 million, up from 10.97 million, and wheat will increase to 57 million acres from 53.6 million.Read More...

Global cotton usage to rise by 3% during 2011-12
Global cotton usage will expand by 3 percentage during 2011-12 fiscal, said the USDA. In its latest report the USDA said cotton consumption will in 2011-12, for a second successive season, break with history and fall behind world economic growth, expected to reach 4-5 percent in 2012. Read More...

World cotton stocks to rebuild as use lags - USDA
Cotton consumption will in 2011-12, for a second successive season, break with history and fall behind world economic growth, US officials forecast, as a broker cautioned that the fibre's rally may be past its peak. Global cotton use will expand by 3.0% in 2011-12, lagging economic growth, which is expected to reach 4-5% in 2012 for a third successive calendar year, US Department of Agriculture economist James Johnson said. Read More...

Malawi sees hope as global cotton prices rise

Malawi is this year poised to benefit from soaring cotton lint prices on the global market which have hit a record high of $2 (about K300) per pound (2 kgs) for the best lint, the Cotton Development Trust (CDT) has said. The February 2011 cotton update by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) says the surge in world cotton prices this marketing season is due to "very low" world cotton stocks, the lowest in eight years, as well as the high global demand for the crop. Read More...
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