The London-based fund believes the major world economies are in a growth phase and that commodities whose supply cannot expand significantly, such as metals, are likely to do better than those with flexible supply. "This leads to a view that metals (in fixed supply) are likely to outperform agricultural commodities (which have more flexible supply and more substitutes)," said Harmonic investment partner Patrik Safvenblad in an interview.
BarclayHedge Inc., which measures performance by managed futures and other funds, rated Harmonic fifth among 10 best-performing managed futures funds with at least $100 million under management, based on performance so far last year.
The fund, which uses a long/short macro strategy, complemented by directional trading in a broad range of markets and securities, has about $575 million under management, of which around 12 percent is in commodities. U.S. gold futures are on track for a gain of nearly 30 percent this year as investors seek safe-haven investments as an alternative to increasingly volatile currencies, stocks and bonds.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, a global benchmark of 19 commodities, has risen 15 percent so far laat year, which would be its second yearly gain. "Clearly we are thinking of what's driving the world. How do things connect? We try to interpret that in the models we trade," said Safvenblad, who joined Harmonic in 2009 from DnB NOR Asset Management, where he headed up hedge fund research, and previously was a professor of finance at the Stockholm School of Economics. He said the policy response of individual countries to the crisis following the financial meltdown of 2008, when "the world crashed together in unison, ... is really starting to matter." As a result, Harmonic views policy divergence by single country as a trading opportunity, he said.
HIGH-QUALITY WHEAT 'METAL-LIKE'
Safvenblad was upbeat on prices of high-quality wheat amid tightening global supplies. "High-quality wheat has less flexible supply (it cannot grow everywhere), and has fewer substitutes. Therefore (it) ... may be more 'metal-like,' especially in the short term," he said.
The worst drought in a century decimated the wheat crop in Russia last summer and forced the country to suspend exports until July next year, while excessive rains damaged Australia's high-quality wheat, turning much of it into animal feed.
Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures have risen 45 percent so far this year amid tightening global supply. "We take a different view from most managers in the space in that we are long and short; for every bullish view we have a bearish view," Safvenblad said. We make "relative bets, not absolute bets."
Harmonic's medium-term targets are dominated by fixed income and currencies, with commodities representing only a small share of their exposure.
By traded asset class, Harmonic's invests comprise: bonds 22 percent; interest rates 13 percent; G-10 currencies 26 percent; emerging currencies (including the Korean won, Turkish lira, South African rand, Hungarian florint and Mexican peso) 19 percent; equities 8 percent; and commodities 12 percent.
The fund, which was founded in 2003, doesn't have a strong view on the dollar, but expects it to pick up in 2011. "We were bearish on the dollar, but since we're at a transition point (in the recovery), we're more or less neutral on the dollar, Europe and Japan," he said.
As for inflation, "We would expect (global) inflation to go higher -- because the undercurrent is growth," Safvenblad said. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
Related Post:
stock
- Best Vanguard High Dividend Yield 2012
- stock market crash august 8 2011, good trading opportunities
- Stock Market Report Week July 30 2011
- stock market prediction august 2011
- Mexico Stocks Preview july 25 2011
- top risers in the FTSE 100 July 25 2011
- best Stocks to buy july 25 2011
- stock market prediction for week 25 july 2011
- Stocks active trade on Friday july 22 2011, Microsoft, Advanced Micro Devices, Caterpillar, General Electric, Schlumberger, Verizon Communications, Mc
- NASDAQ ARUN stock prices prediction
- ETFs Stock To Watch July 21, 2011
- Top Stocks Pick Trading Ideas july 21 2011
- NASDAQ Stock Market Movers July 21 2011, DTLK, MLNX, HOGS, TRMS, ALTH, FWRD, STX, MKSI, FFIV, TSCO, CAKE, QCOM
- Best stock to Buy July 20 2011, PowerShares , Apple Inc, iShares Russell 2000 Index,
- Best stock to buy july 19 2011, Stocks to Watch
- companies are having unusual price changes in Bogota trading july 18 2011
- best-performing stocks week july 18 2011
- EV Energy Partners Stock prices rose july 18 2011
- Best-Performing Canadian Stocks July 16, 2011
- Ultra Electronics stock predictions
- Best consumer stock picks 2011
- Best-Performing IT Services Stocks week July 16 2011
- Wall Street Stock market Forecast For Week Of July 18 2011
- Zillow price range for IPO per share july 18 2011
- Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc stock prices analysts
No comments:
Post a Comment