1. Russell 2000 ® (TF)
The Russell 2000® Index is the recognized benchmark measuring the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe; it includes 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. Mini Russell 2000® Index futures are available for trading on the ICE Exchange. This financial commodity has seen a very strong performance along with US Stock market in 2010.
The index is fighting to reach the 800 level by year end, the continued strength should continue into the last few trading days of 2010. The increase in real yield should provide competition for the stock market in 2011 specially the small cap. The 2010 economic expansion has been engineered by the Fed and not real growth, this growth cannot be sustained without further Fed easing and it seems as though they are running out of bullets. Another big factor contributing to 2011 environment would be more risk in Eurozone as their uncertain debt market should continue.
2. Gold (GC)
The year 2010 is ending as the longer term yields are slowly creeping higher, the recent movement in 30 Year Bond and 10 Year Note are the results of better economic data and the prospects of faster economic expansion in the next few quarters.
Gold February contract just reached a high of 1,426 on Nov 9th, since then the contract has been hovering around key support levels. Equity market to remaining firm and real yields increasing 2011 will put pressure on precious metals. Watch for key support levels at around 1317 level however the trend still remain positive into 2011.
3. Cotton (CT)
Cotton has pushed limits trading higher this year, the crop conditions along with market expectations has pushed this soft commodity to an all time high in the last quarter of 2010. Cotton prices are likely to stabilize in 2011 as more supplies come back to the market place. Our forecast is for 90 cents per pound sometimes in 2011.
4. Oil (CL)
Light Sweet Crude Oil traded on CME exchange has seen a steady increase in 2010. Weakening of US Dollar, positive market expectations along with efforts from Federal Reserve in providing additional stimulus to the US Economy has helped this commodity reach levels close to $90. No changes in the current OPEC production quotas, continued increase demand from China and India coupled with tensions over Middle East should provide a floor for Oil above $80 for 2011 and perhaps push it back above $100. If $100 level is breached to the upside and holds, this could significantly damper the U.S. economic recovery as the consumers have to pay more for gas prices at the pump.
5. 30 Year Treasury Bond (ZB)
U.S. Treasury bond having a face value at maturity of $100,000 traded on CME experienced a volatile 2010. The price has seen wild swings as more lights were shed on Fed purchasing of long term bonds. Continued weakness in US Non Farm payroll in the next year and the implementation of $600 billion package from the Fed should create even more volatile environment for Bond prices in 2011. Watch for 120 level on 30 Year T Bond, if broken we could see 115 and even 113. If more weakness in employment continues a bounce should reach the125 level.
About Payam Pedram
Payam Pedram is a founding member and CEO of Ascendant Asset Advisors, Inc. He was approved as a Principal of AAA on April 22, 2005. He registered with the CFTC as an Associated Person and a NFA Associate Member on June 6, 2005. Pedram is also registered with the California Department of Corporations as an Investment Advisor Representative. He is a Microsoft Certified System Engineer, and a graduate of Pepperdine University with a degree in Management. He also has an MBA from Pepperdine University with a dual emphasis in Finance and Dispute Resolution.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading in futures and options is speculative and not suitable for all investors. An investor can potentially lose more than the initial investment. Before investing, one must review the most recent disclosure document of ascendant asset advisors, inc. .
The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
No comments:
Post a Comment