Monday, December 13, 2010

Best and Worst investments of 2010

Best and worst investments of 2010 : From brilliant gold and copper right down to disastrous Greek government bonds and Irish bank shares, here are the good and bad of 2010’s investment scene. Normally at this time of year I look at the world of shares for the best and the worst performers but 2010's excitement has been in broader investment areas. You don't have to be an investor to notice that the price of bread and meat has soared or that shops have sprung up offering best prices for your gold jewellery.

You don't have to be a banker to fret over the capsizing of the Irish banking system, which has so many UK savers, mortgage holders and even Post Office account holders nervous. Everything's guaranteed by the Irish government, but for a long time it wasn't clear they had the money to back it.

Likewise, if you've visited Australia, the ultimate mining boom country, you can't help but notice that a beer now costs up to £10 a pint, thanks to a soaring currency and uninterrupted economic growth.

Let's taker a close look at the investments behind the news, focusing on the best and the worst of 2010.

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Copper
If you have suffered broken pipes in the cold snap, as I just have, you won't need reminding of the importance of copper. This conductive, malleable metal is vital for electrics, electronics and plumbing. There's a good pound weight of it in the average PC. The Chinese have been gobbling it up as they build out ever-bigger cities for the migrants coming in from the countryside for better jobs.

Copper has been on a roll for years. Five years ago it cost $1.20 (£0.76) per lb, and now it is $4 (£2.54). In the last year alone the price has soared by a third, which is great news for Chile, the world's biggest producer, as few other countries are able to step up production.

For a pure play on copper, there are spread bets and contracts for differences (CFDs). For a longer-term stake and some income too, savvy investors have done well with London-listed copper miner Antofagasta Holdings, which has soared from 900p to 1550p this year.

Gold
Gold's attraction is all about lack of trust in money. When governments borrow like there is no tomorrow, and then start buying back the IOUs they sold to banks - which is what quantitative easing (QE) is - then you know that the nervous investor will be buying up the yellow metal.

The financial crisis was almost designed to show gold's scarcity in its best light and the price reflects that. Gold has risen from $1,150 (£730 at today's exchange rate) to $1,400 (£888) per ounce, having climbed from $300 back in 2001. It looks pretty expensive, but then it did last year too. Still, now that US government bonds have started to offer better yields, the opportunity cost of holding gold is climbing. It may be time to leave.

Physical gold can be bought directly in coins, in certificated bullion deposits and physically backed exchange traded funds. Spread bets and CFDs also give an exposure to the price. Those who fancy an income can look at any of dozens of pure gold mining shares, though a more prudent bet may be to look at the more diversified mining giants which give exposure to most metals.

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Shares perform averagely
This has been a so-so year for the average share-based investor, something that shouldn't be a surprise after the huge gains of 2009. The FTSE 100 looks to be on target for 8-9% for the year, including dividends, smack on the long-term average.

However, some sectors have done much better than that. Britain's manufacturers are making hay from the global economic recovery and the competitively valued pound. While China may make the stuff we buy as consumers, we increasingly supply them the machinery to do it.

British exporters
The company that perhaps typifies this last point most is GKN which, far from being tied to the UK car industry, is now going great guns with the Chinese. The automotive component firm has a big market share there, which is looking great considering the double-digit growth in that market. GKN shares have doubled this year, and the dividend has been resumed.

Just as interesting is the Glasgow-based pumpmaker Weir, whose shares have soared from 700p to 1820p, a rise of 160% in just a year. The firm makes most of its money selling and then servicing equipment to mining firms. Both these companies are looking fully priced for now, but it was a great profit for those that spotted them a year ago.

Grain of truth
Food commodity prices have jumped, just as metals did, though for partly different reasons. Grains, in particular, were spurred by a scorching summer and disastrous harvests in Russia and the Ukraine. This was followed by an export ban across much of central Asia, which had a knock-on effect on meat prices because grain is the single biggest cost in feed. Wheat prices, for example, jumped by 40% between June and August.

This comes on top of three longer-term trends. One is the increasing meat consumption of Asians as their income rises. The second is the increasingly large chunk of the American maize (corn) crop which is being turned into ethanol for cars. By 2012 around 30% of the maize grown by US farmers will be going into fuel tanks, leaving much less of a surplus to export.

Finally, the world is losing farmland at an increasing rate to cities, which means the remainder must become more productive.

There are specialist managed funds that invest in such commodities and futures brokers offer direct exposure to individual crops. It is a tricky area for the non-professional but, nevertheless, this is a trend that isn't going away.

The great bond disasters
Greece's financial difficulties may seem remote but the heavily indebted nation that cooked its books to even get into the euro has added an extra burden to all European banks - including those UK ones that we taxpayers bailed out.

Add in Portugal, Ireland and, at some point, Spain and there are huge extra strains on the banking system from property losses in those countries and holdings in national government bonds. That's quite apart from the question mark over the survival of the eurozone, which the cost of bailouts has raised.

UK bank shares have now given up most of their 2010 gains as this reality sank in. Given that most of us have pensions that hold British bank shares, their pain is our pain. That pain may get worse in 2011.

Housing
Prices have been poor, except in central London. No surprises that this wasn't going to be the way to make money in 2010. However, for indebted buy-to-let landlords the silver lining to this cloud has been the buoyancy of the rental market. High demand has been spurring rents, which have risen 4.5% in October from a year ago, according to LSL Property Services.

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Savings: the slow losses
Miserable rates on savings in the UK have meant that pretty much everything we put away has actually lost value compared to inflation. That's a great incentive to spend - exactly what the government wants. It has helped channel savings higher up the risk scale too: into offshore accounts in Cyprus and Turkey, into shares and into gold.

However, with improved economic growth and government bond yields rising, it shouldn't be too many months before slightly better rates filter through to savers.
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